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Although little data is available it seems that most networks have successfully migrated most users to 64k SIM cards in the normal course of business, thus removing the constraint and also eliminating the need for customers to complete a potentially confusing SIM swap to avail of a mobile payment service. The third issue concerns security, with operators needing to make trade-offs between ease of deployment and use and security. These issues remain and continue to be a key feature of debates on the appropriate business model and partnerships required to succeed. There are now probably three groups of “core solutions” and related business models that are competing in the market, which reflect these trends: i) SIM dependent and integrated solutions – The best know example of such a solution is M-PESA from Safaricom, which is now pre-loaded on all Safaricom SIM cards. Being integrated into the SIM card, the solution can operate, and was designed to operate, on the most basic phone, and has end-to-end encryption. However given the degree of technological integration this type of solution is extremely difficult for a non-mobile network operator (MNO) to offer and thus gives an MNO a huge advantage over other mobile payments providers, and is thus a core feature of MNO lead business models.

ii) USSD solutions – equally successful are solutions that use unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) and simple menus to provide mobile payment solutions. Bank mobile payment providers in South Africa have seen the greatest success with USSD services. However as the initial leg of the transaction is not encrypted or secure, most of these services have been confined to “closed loop transactions” – where money is passed between accounts or users at a single bank, but not between banks. This is a huge constraint to achieving widespread use of mobile payments as interactions will be confined to either the bank’s own customers and out of network payments need to be to cash.

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As all phones can use USSD, the solution can reach large target segments, and as the USSD service does not require integration with the SIM card, these services can be launched with minimal involvement of a MNO. Although the MNO needs to agree to make the service available and this has been a problem in some markets. In USSD solutions anybody can “play” and banks have tended to be the winners. iii) GPRS/Java solutions – involving downloads.

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As noted above downloading solutions to an “enhanced” phone is considerably easier, and an increasing number of people have higher quality phones, or soon will have them. It is likely that most people who are banked now have phones that can handle such downloads. This business model is perhaps the most contestable as the downloadable application can be from a bank, mobile network operator or any other third party.

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The drawback remains that the solution is no more secure than accessing the internet, and to compensate the provider for the associated risk transaction fees tend to higher. What Might The Future Hold? The future industry terrain will be governed by issue of customer ownership and platform.

Whereas the mobile operators will continue to have the greatest natural market share and brands, their ability to use this to lock customers into products and services they provide will probably diminish.

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